烟台库存持续增压 2015新批196个预售证

房天下  2016-01-07 07:00

[摘要] 2015年，烟台市场共新批将近200个预售证，新增供应房源也是一天比一天多。库存如山，去化如丝，面对如此高量的存量房源，开发商该怎么办？市场又该怎么办？2015年烟台预售白皮书，为您解读市场新增供应数据。

降息5次、降准3次、营业税5改2、二套房首付比例下调、公积金新政、房贷6.15%直降至4.9%……堪称房地产政策史上牛的救援队在2015都齐了。在强政策的刺激下，烟台楼市却远未像想象中那样一骑绝尘，而是继续在被动中寻找发展的机会。成交量虽高市场却依旧寒冷，土地市场从年头平淡至年尾，库存量不断增加，开发商强者恒强弱者难寻出路……2015年的烟台楼市，经历了太多。

这一年，跌宕起伏；这一年，耐人寻味。这一年，太多的变数难以想象，太多的不同寻常。这一年，“不买房，你又得后悔了”成为网友的家常谈资……2016年大踏步而来，烟台房天下矩献《2015-2016烟台楼市白皮书》，用数据还原真相，360°用事实回眸精彩片段，全方位多角度触摸疯魔的2015，迎接未知的2016。

预售证是开发商入市卖房的凭据，也是楼市供应的集中体现。在市场大环境不景气的情况下，烟台的开发商们却还是毅然决然地走入了市场。2015年，烟台市场共新批将近200个预售证，新增供应房源也是一天比一天多。库存如山，去化如丝，面对如此高量的存量房源，开发商该怎么办？市场又该怎么办？2015年烟台预售白皮书，为您解读市场新增供应数据。

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房天下数据监控中心：烟台房产交易网数据显示：2015年，烟台楼市共新批预售证196个，相比2014年的203个减少7个。全年共新增供应50318套房源，新增供应面积4963660.1平米。这两项数据相比去年分别下滑4.6%和2%，新增供应从2014年以来连续第二年下滑。2015年烟台房地产市场持续的观望情绪直接影响了开发商的入市积极性，因此新增量有所下滑。

具体到房源类型上来看，在2015年196个预售证新增的50318套房源中，住宅房源（包含公寓）占到了84%，共有42370套，住宅新增供应面4127210.83平米，新增商业房源5339套，新增面积624602.45平米。另外还有2599套办公房源新批预售，新增供应面积211846.82平米。

新增供应作为体现楼市活跃度的一个重要方面，往往能直观的反映出开发商对市场的态度。2015年开局三个月，受整体形势以及春节效应的影响，楼市新增供应量较少，开发商推新积极性下滑。随着一连串的降息、降准、公积金新政等政策，开发商对市场信心有所增强。因此，二季度之后，烟台楼市新增供应量显著增加，尤其5月份共新批预售证25个，达到年内峰值。进入下半年之后，在多个旺季的推动下，开发商入市积极性也有明显增加，除11月新批预售证数量为14个之外，其余各月都在15个以上，其中10月共有22个预售证，为下半年峰值。

从预售情况来看，上半年烟台楼市活跃度低于下半年。2、3月份，烟台楼市新增供应量显著减少，尤其是2月份，全月新增供应房源仅有1390套，新增预售房源量多的月份为5月，全月25个预售证共新增8052套新房源，新增供应总面积782423.64平米。金九银十两月，烟台楼市在新增供应方面并没有太大的变化，反而较之前一月有所降低，9月份新增供应房源5275套，10月份新增供应4104套，均低于8月份的5614套。

整个2015年，烟台楼市表现平平，六区也都按照既定路线发展，并没有黑马出现。在新批预售证方面，开发区表现依然为活跃，全年共新批48个预售证，福山区则以42个预售证紧随其后。开发区自2015年1月以来，无论是成交量还是新增供应量基本都稳居六区首位，区域刚需购买力稳定出手，市场表现十分活跃。开发区48个预售证的新增供应套数达到13861套，占到了六区新增供应套数27.5%。福山区新增供应套数8871套，在开发区的重压之下，福山区表现平稳，市场相对活跃。

2015年芝罘区楼市从成交量到推盘量都没有太多亮点，共获得38个预售证，新增供应房源10270套。芝罘区作为烟台的中心城区，向来表现强势，但是由于区内住宅用地几近饱和，不少项目都处于“无房可卖”的状态，因此成交量和新增供应量相对较少。而东部三区市场低迷算得上是烟台楼市的“顽疾”了，从莱山区到牟平区，三个区域都各有优势，但是劣势也十分明显，开发商入市的积极性相对不高。尤其是高新区，虽然区域内项目较少，但是年内仅新增7个预售证，2164套房源。

另外，2015年单个预售证供应套数多的项目（包含所有房源类型）已经出炉，排名前五的项目分别是：五洲国际商贸城（1152套烟房预许字2015第168号）、越秀星汇金沙（1060套 烟房预许字2015第034号）、衡悦大厦（996套 烟房预许字2015第051号）、中海国际社区（867套 烟房预许字2015第063号）、天马相城豪景苑（821套 烟房预许字2015第042号）。

2015年新增供应多（包含多个预售证）的项目为：烟台毅德城（5个预售证，1489套房源）、五洲国际商贸城（2个预售证，1376套房源）、天马相城（2个预售证、1321套房源）、万达华府（4个预售证、1281套房源）、中海国际社区（3个预售证，1205套房源）。

2015年，烟台楼市经历了从筑底到反弹的过程。一季度市场浓重的观望情绪以及蓄客量不足让不少项目放缓开盘步伐，等待时机。二季度在强大的政策指引下，开发商信心有所恢复，开始大举攻市，但似乎收效甚微。进入下半年，政府没有停下调控的步伐，但楼市表现却远没有达到政策所想指引到的预期，尤其是从烟台楼市来看，购房者出手速度依然较慢，并没有出现明显好转。同时，烟台楼市库存量也只增不减。数据统计显示，截至2015年11月底，烟台六区整体存量套数为107312套，去化周期为42个月——如何解决这天量库存，如何面对越来越大的竞争压力，都是开发商需要解决的问题。